Weather influences on burials - LPR 1753 - 1776
The Weather and other outside influences
The first 3½ years worth of data that was processed had 'wearing' listed as a disorder only in the first year, mainly in the first half of that year. This prompted the thought that maybe particularly bad weather had played a part in these deaths and started a hunt for temperature and rainfall figures. Wrigley and Schofield [1981] gave references for some data which was not immediately available.
The internet was searched to see if such data existed in electronic form. This led to the Met. Office web site and the discovery that they expect payment even to download historical records. An e-mail led to the address of their library archives who very kindly supplied both rainfall, Table B-1, and temperature, Table B-2, statistics for the years in question. Each Table has an accompanying graph, Figures B-1 and B-2, to illustrate the totals. The Central England temperature figures were also found in Manley [1974 p394 &395] Prior to obtaining them from either source the temperature figures had been posted to an internet weather newsgroup in response to a plea for information as to where such information could be found.
The Met. Office also supplied some information on a handwritten journal which contained weather information and also contained agricultural prices, Records of the Seasons, Prices of Agricultural Produce, and Phenomena Observed in the British Isles, by Thomas Baker. The details of the journal led to the discovery that it had been published in 1883 and that the work had been incorporated into a more recent book [Stratton and Brown, 1969] As well as wheat prices, Table B-3, this book produced some information that brings the raw statistics to life.
1760 | The series of fine years continued. summer dry and exceptionally hot.
Estimated to be 365,000 farmers and 200,000 agricultural day labourers in England and Wales. |
1762 | A year of great drought.
A blizzard in February lasted for 18 days, and snow in some places lay 10-12 feet deep. In the drought and heat a heavy harvest was gathered, but fodder became exceedingly scarce. The drought broke in exceptionally heavy rainfall from October 26th onwards, especially in the eastern counties. "Most of the cattle in the fields were carried off; likewise stacks of hay and wood, ......." London Magazine. |
1763 | Recorded as the wettest summer since 1756.... |
1767 | Very severe frosts began in late December |
1768 | The year began with a very cold spell, lasting till January 16th. Spring cold and wet. From
June 7th onwards torrential rain fell, and rainy weather continued till the end of harvest. Both
hay and grain harvests were disappointing. A whirlwind of remarkable intensity devastated
a moorland valley near Tavistock on August 22nd. Fogs in September and rain frequent for
rest of autumn. Serious floods in November.
Food riots in many place. |
1773 | More food riots |
[Stratton and Brown 1969 p79&80]
The book does, however, lack the variety and interest of the unpublished journal by Baker, which has a hand written entry saying:
1773 April 15. Between noon and 2pm. Two violent shocks of an earthquake in the Channel Islands and coast of Dorsetshire, and in Kerry Ireland.
May 26. A shock at Coalbrookdale Staffordshire. (Roper.)
[Baker]
An interesting relationship between the weather and bubonic plague is quoted below:
'The flea that transmits bubonic plague (Xenopsylla cheops) undergoes a speeding up of its life-cycle as temperatures rise in the range 20°-32°C (68°-90F). Breeding is speeded up, but the death of each generation of the insect also comes sooner, the higher the temperature. At relative humidities below 30 per cent of saturation the life of the flea is reduced to a quarter of what it is in near-saturated air.' [Lamb 1982 p302-303] A look at the weather conditions prevailing at the times of some of the major outbreaks could be interesting.
Shrewsbury quotes a supposed eyewitness account of the outbreak of plague in Leeds in 1645 as saying : 'the air was then very warm, and so infectious that dogs and cats, rats and mice died' [Shrewsbury 1970 p406] which would support Lambs' assertions.
The affect of the weather on agriculture is profound. Apart from years when crops don't ripen or are devastated by too much or too little rain or too high winds there are also conditions which permit certain pests to flourish. Again from Lamb:
'specific weather conditions promoting the development of potato blight (periods of forty-eight hours or more with temperatures continuously above 10°C and humidity above 90 per cent saturation), or favouring cattle diseases in temperate countries such as liver-fluke and gastro-enteritis (and their hosts or vectors at some vital stage of the development cycle), can be defined and are used to issue warnings and initiate preventive measures.' [Lamb 1982 p304-305]
So the Irish potato famine need not happen today.
The number of burials in Leeds did increase in 1762 and were at the highest level, up to that point, in 1763. 1768, a year of food riots, actually had a drop in the number of burials but 1773 was the year with the highest burial level in the whole sequence.
Lamb [1972 p 434] contains details of volcanic eruptions with an assessment of the amount of dust they threw into the atmosphere to affect the weather Table B-4. Volcanic dust is known to affect the weather for a number of years when the eruption is large enough.
None of these figures actually relate to the immediate area of Leeds, or even of Yorkshire, but are the closest we can come to understanding the climate in England at that time.
Temperature figures are available for Lancashire for the same period [Manley 1946 p15] but the years 1760 - 1765 are indicated as being based on more distant records so are unlikely to be more helpful than the Central England figures. Equally the Kew rainfall monthly figures [Wales-Smith 1971] are incorporated into the Central England totals.
Was it worth obtaining all this information? The Leeds burials actually look to be more closely related to the rainfall figures than to anything else. Table B-5 and Figure B-3 Even this is spurious though as shown by Figure B-4 where the rainfall figures have been sorted into an ascending sequence and plotted against the number of deaths. A further attempt was made by plotting both sets of figures compared to their own averages Figure B-5 but this still only showed the original relationship. Calculations also proved that there was not a linear relationship between the two sets of data, although this does not mean that there is not a more complicated relationship.
To make everything fit on to the same graph the burials from Wrigley and Schofield [1981 p516] were divided by 250 and the Central England temperatures were multiplied by 10. However at that scale the temperature figures still look almost like a straight line.
Figure B-2 shows that the monthly temperatures follow a general pattern with no more than 7°C between the highest and lowest for each month. In real terms 7°C can make a big difference to the comfort of living so all it really shows is the wide range of temperatures that are possible during the course of a year in England.
Stratton and Browns 'very severe frosts' [Stratton and Brown 1969 p79] in 1767 translate into an average Central England temperature for January of 0.10°C. However in February 1765, with an average of 0.40°C we have a cause of death of 'Drowned by scating' which would imply that at some point the temperatures were low enough to freeze a body of water of sufficient size to tempt children, at least, to try skating on it.
The discovery of Mitchells' Abstract of British Historical Statistics [Mitchell 1962]added even more additional factors to the equation, although it has to be noted that the wheat prices quoted by Mitchell are different to those quoted by Stratton and Brown.
Since wool prices were important to the region they were considered [Mitchell 1962 p494-495] although only the Lincoln Long covered the whole of our period of interest. [Table B-6] Cloth production figures in West Yorkshire [Wilson[1971 p40] can be found in Table G-1.
The Schumpeter-Gilboy Price indices for 1757 - 1776 can be found in Table B-7 but don't tell us much other than that prices were high in 1757 and 1758, fell slightly then rose steadily through the 1760s, peaking in 1767 and only 1 point less at the time of the food riots in 1768. A brief dip and then steadily rising again. It is interesting to note that only the index including cereals, beans and peas is consistently higher than the base year of 1701.
As with all the figures used in this study the time span in insufficient to be able to draw any conclusions. The picture produced is, however, very interesting.
Average Monthly rainfall - England and Wales (mm) supplied by the Met Office Library Dec 1998
Table B-1
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | total | |
1753 | 66 | 91 | 36 | 58 | 38 | 36 | 91 | 130 | 25 | 104 | 109 | 147 | 931 |
1754 | 51 | 38 | 58 | 51 | 53 | 86 | 109 | 84 | 5 | 58 | 66 | 142 | 801 |
1755 | 41 | 30 | 66 | 74 | 46 | 53 | 91 | 104 | 94 | 64 | 135 | 56 | 854 |
1756 | 71 | 28 | 66 | 142 | 43 | 102 | 84 | 150 | 66 | 43 | 48 | 36 | 879 |
1757 | 64 | 33 | 84 | 86 | 64 | 23 | 97 | 183 | 28 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 878 |
1758 | 51 | 94 | 53 | 38 | 33 | 56 | 185 | 84 | 94 | 48 | 51 | 86 | 873 |
1759 | 46 | 13 | 74 | 74 | 51 | 109 | 48 | 104 | 79 | 81 | 61 | 41 | 781 |
1760 | 51 | 102 | 25 | 18 | 43 | 86 | 41 | 112 | 112 | 122 | 107 | 89 | 908 |
1761 | 18 | 76 | 30 | 25 | 76 | 97 | 51 | 99 | 102 | 122 | 86 | 69 | 851 |
1762 | 91 | 58 | 56 | 36 | 28 | 23 | 58 | 114 | 102 | 152 | 61 | 30 | 809 |
1763 | 18 | 89 | 38 | 48 | 79 | 104 | 175 | 119 | 109 | 71 | 71 | 170 | 1091 |
1764 | 168 | 74 | 46 | 46 | 53 | 56 | 145 | 76 | 53 | 79 | 84 | 71 | 951 |
1765 | 64 | 36 | 109 | 89 | 18 | 46 | 18 | 102 | 53 | 152 | 61 | 41 | 789 |
1766 | 8 | 64 | 20 | 64 | 104 | 102 | 69 | 46 | 71 | 74 | 61 | 51 | 734 |
1767 | 74 | 117 | 71 | 30 | 69 | 28 | 147 | 69 | 64 | 86 | 81 | 28 | 864 |
1768 | 99 | 130 | 18 | 74 | 36 | 130 | 124 | 91 | 137 | 109 | 150 | 94 | 1192 |
1769 | 56 | 69 | 33 | 36 | 53 | 109 | 46 | 91 | 107 | 38 | 76 | 74 | 788 |
1770 | 48 | 53 | 69 | 61 | 53 | 104 | 58 | 48 | 81 | 99 | 175 | 107 | 956 |
1771 | 66 | 30 | 43 | 28 | 46 | 30 | 48 | 97 | 61 | 137 | 53 | 94 | 733 |
1772 | 66 | 89 | 84 | 33 | 48 | 107 | 58 | 74 | 140 | 97 | 127 | 41 | 964 |
1773 | 76 | 51 | 23 | 51 | 145 | 48 | 38 | 79 | 150 | 112 | 99 | 109 | 981 |
1774 | 97 | 86 | 61 | 51 | 66 | 71 | 91 | 89 | 140 | 36 | 46 | 64 | 898 |
1775 | 79 | 97 | 64 | 28 | 23 | 51 | 145 | 135 | 127 | 119 | 89 | 41 | 998 |
1776 | 56 | 114 | 46 | 23 | 38 | 79 | 86 | 130 | 107 | 48 | 81 | 51 | 859 |
Month Total | 1525 | 1662 | 1273 | 1264 | 1306 | 1736 | 2103 | 2410 | 2107 | 2122 | 2054 | 1801 | |
Mean | 63.54 | 69.25 | 53.04 | 52.67 | 54.42 | 72.33 | 87.63 | 100.42 | 87.79 | 88.42 | 85.58 | 75.04 | 890.13 |
Median | 64.00 | 71.50 | 54.50 | 49.50 | 49.50 | 75.00 | 85.00 | 98.00 | 94.00 | 83.50 | 78.50 | 69.00 | 875.50 |
St. Dev. | 31.29 | 31.70 | 22.62 | 27.24 | 26.60 | 32.02 | 44.64 | 30.43 | 37.91 | 34.25 | 32.90 | 37.65 | 105.70 |
1941-70 long term average | 86 | 65 | 59 | 58 | 67 | 61 | 73 | 90 | 83 | 83 | 97 | 90 | 912 |
1961-90 long term average | 88 | 63 | 72 | 60 | 64 | 65 | 62 | 76 | 77 | 85 | 90 | 94 | 896 |
Average monthly temperatures - kindly supplied by the Met. Office Library Archives
Table B-2
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Ar | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Se | Oct | Nov | Dec | Average |
1757 | 0.30 | 4.00 | 4.90 | 8.10 | 10.70 | 14.00 | 18.40 | 15.20 | 13.30 | 8.20 | 7.10 | 3.20 | 8.95 |
1758 | 2.60 | 3.80 | 5.20 | 7.20 | 13.80 | 14.60 | 14.20 | 16.40 | 11.90 | 8.10 | 5.70 | 3.90 | 8.95 |
1759 | 5.90 | 5.80 | 6.10 | 8.60 | 12.10 | 15.00 | 18.20 | 16.30 | 13.50 | 10.90 | 5.10 | 2.50 | 10.00 |
1760 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 6.60 | 9.40 | 11.70 | 15.20 | 16.90 | 15.80 | 15.70 | 9.20 | 5.70 | 6.10 | 9.83 |
1761 | 5.40 | 5.80 | 6.80 | 9.40 | 11.90 | 14.30 | 15.80 | 16.40 | 14.20 | 9.40 | 6.20 | 4.40 | 10.00 |
1762 | 4.70 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 10.00 | 12.90 | 16.90 | 17.80 | 15.30 | 13.60 | 7.90 | 4.60 | 3.60 | 9.58 |
1763 | -0.80 | 4.90 | 5.40 | 8.90 | 10.20 | 14.60 | 15.30 | 15.30 | 13.10 | 8.30 | 5.80 | 6.20 | 8.93 |
1764 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 7.20 | 12.20 | 13.90 | 16.10 | 15.20 | 12.50 | 8.90 | 4.40 | 2.80 | 8.72 |
1765 | 4.80 | 0.40 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 11.40 | 13.80 | 15.70 | 15.30 | 13.30 | 9.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 8.50 |
1766 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 8.10 | 9.70 | 13.70 | 15.70 | 16.60 | 13.30 | 9.30 | 7.20 | 3.30 | 8.63 |
1767 | 0.10 | 5.40 | 4.70 | 7.30 | 10.00 | 12.80 | 14.40 | 16.10 | 14.10 | 9.20 | 6.90 | 3.30 | 8.69 |
1768 | 0.80 | 4.80 | 4.70 | 8.10 | 12.20 | 13.90 | 15.60 | 16.00 | 11.70 | 9.20 | 5.60 | 4.60 | 8.93 |
1769 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 5.00 | 7.80 | 11.30 | 13.10 | 16.40 | 15.00 | 12.80 | 8.20 | 5.70 | 4.80 | 8.78 |
1770 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 2.50 | 5.40 | 10.00 | 13.10 | 15.30 | 15.80 | 13.90 | 8.90 | 5.30 | 3.60 | 8.51 |
1771 | 1.00 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 5.50 | 12.20 | 14.30 | 15.70 | 14.30 | 12.20 | 9.20 | 6.30 | 5.60 | 8.55 |
1772 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 4.40 | 6.40 | 10.10 | 16.10 | 16.90 | 16.10 | 13.00 | 11.70 | 7.20 | 4.80 | 9.15 |
1773 | 4.00 | 2.60 | 6.50 | 8.30 | 10.30 | 14.70 | 15.90 | 17.20 | 12.40 | 9.90 | 5.30 | 3.80 | 9.24 |
1774 | 0.60 | 4.30 | 6.40 | 8.60 | 10.90 | 14.70 | 16.10 | 16.10 | 12.50 | 10.30 | 4.80 | 3.50 | 9.07 |
1775 | 4.60 | 6.10 | 6.00 | 9.80 | 12.60 | 16.60 | 16.70 | 15.80 | 14.30 | 9.30 | 4.80 | 4.50 | 10.09 |
1776 | -1.60 | 3.80 | 6.40 | 9.40 | 10.80 | 14.10 | 16.30 | 15.20 | 12.90 | 10.20 | 6.20 | 4.40 | 9.01 |
Wheat Prices
Table B-3
Year | Wheat (per qtr) s d |
Wheat price converted into pence |
1758 | 50 0 | 250.00 |
1759 | 39 10 | 199.17 |
1760 | 36 6 | 182.50 |
1761 | 30 3 | 151.25 |
1762 | 39 0 | 195.00 |
1763 | 40 9 | 203.75 |
1764 | 46 9 | 233.75 |
1765 | 48 0 | 240.00 |
1766 | 43 1 | 215.42 |
1767 | 47 4 | 236.67 |
1768 | 53 9 | 268.75 |
1769 | 40 7 | 202.92 |
1770 | 43 6 | 217.50 |
1771 | 47 2 | 235.83 |
1772 | 50 8 | 253.33 |
1773 | 51 0 | 255.00 |
1774 | 52 8 | 263.33 |
1775 | 48 4 | 241.67 |
1776 | 38 2 | 190.82 |
[Stratton and Brown 1969 p252&253]
Volcanic Dust Index
Table B-4
Year | Volcano | Situation | Dust Veil Index |
1755 | Katla, Iceland | 63½°N 19°W | 400 |
1759 | Jorulla, Mexico | 19°N 102°W | 300 |
1760 | Makjan, Moluccas | ½°N 127½°W | 250 |
1763 | 'Molucca Is.' | 2°N-3°S 125-131°E | 600 (?) |
1766 | Hekla, Iceland | 64°N 19½°W | 200 |
1766 | Mayon, Luzon, Phillippines | 13½°N 123½°E | 2300 (?) |
1768 | Cotopaxi, Ecuador | 1°S 78°W | 900 |
1772 | Gunung Papandayan, Java | 7½°S 108°E | 250 |
1775 | Pacaya, Guatemala | 14°N 91°W | 1000(?) |
Comparison of factors that might be involved with Deaths
Table B-5
Wheat | Temp | Rain | Burials | Baptisms | W&S Burials | Real Wage Index | |
1758 | 250.00 | 8.95 | 873 | 472 | 404 | 165150 | 634 |
1759 | 199.17 | 10.00 | 781 | 424 | 464 | 165550 | 669 |
1760 | 182.50 | 9.83 | 908 | 483 | 476 | 161100 | 706 |
1761 | 151.25 | 10.00 | 851 | 405 | 430 | 162678 | 684 |
1762 | 195.00 | 9.58 | 809 | 467 | 442 | 193250 | 672 |
1763 | 203.75 | 8.93 | 1091 | 614 | 443 | 199535 | 672 |
1764 | 233.75 | 8.72 | 951 | 430 | 482 | 168347 | 605 |
1765 | 240.00 | 8.50 | 789 | 440 | 509 | 163163 | 602 |
1766 | 215.42 | 8.63 | 734 | 504 | 499 | 188088 | 574 |
1767 | 236.67 | 8.69 | 864 | 623 | 485 | 185804 | 585 |
1768 | 268.75 | 8.93 | 1192 | 543 | 482 | 175724 | 641 |
1769 | 202.92 | 8.78 | 788 | 458 | 559 | 172708 | 649 |
1770 | 217.50 | 8.51 | 956 | 571 | 552 | 182994 | 602 |
1771 | 235.83 | 8.55 | 733 | 520 | 611 | 175401 | 548 |
1772 | 253.33 | 9.15 | 964 | 529 | 585 | 177662 | 554 |
1773 | 255.00 | 9.24 | 981 | 647 | 613 | 180825 | 552 |
1774 | 263.33 | 9.07 | 898 | 466 | 554 | 163994 | 589 |
1775 | 241.67 | 10.09 | 998 | 558 | 611 | 173041 | 606 |
1776 | 190.82 | 9.01 | 859 | 464 | 636 | 165654 | 616 |
To allow all the figures to co-exist on one graph the temperatures were multiplied by 10 and the figures for the 404 parishes used by Wrigley and Schofield [1981 p516] were divided by 250.
Raw Wool Prices
Table B-6
Lincoln Long | South Down | Kent Long | |
1757 | 3.21 | ||
1758 | 3.57 | ||
1759 | 3.57 | 3.54 | 3.13 |
1760 | 3.30 | 3.54 | 3.13 |
1761 | 3.21 | 2.71 | 2.50 |
1762 | 3.04 | 2.71 | 2.50 |
1763 | 3.57 | 3.33 | 2.92 |
1764 | 3.57 | 3.33 | 3.33 |
1765 | 3.75 | 3.13 | 2.92 |
1766 | 3.84 | 3.33 | 3.33 |
1767 | 3.57 | 3.75 | 3.13 |
1768 | 2.86 | 2.92 | 2.71 |
1769 | 2.72 | 2.92 | 2.71 |
1770 | 2.50 | 3.13 | 2.92 |
1771 | 2.68 | 3.33 | 3.13 |
1772 | 2.77 | 2.92 | 2.71 |
1773 | 2.77 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
1774 | 3.13 | 3.33 | 2.92 |
1775 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 3.33 |
1776 | 3.30 | 3.54 | 3.33 |
Schumpeter-Gilboy Price Indices
Table B-7
Consumer Goods
(a) |
other than cereals
(b) |
Producers Goods (c) | |
1757 | 109 | 92 | 94 |
1758 | 106 | 94 | 101 |
1759 | 100 | 96 | 101 |
1760 | 98 | 97 | 102 |
1761 | 94 | 91 | 101 |
1762 | 94 | 90 | 102 |
1763 | 100 | 92 | 102 |
1764 | 102 | 94 | 101 |
1765 | 106 | 97 | 99 |
1766 | 107 | 96 | 99 |
1767 | 109 | 93 | 99 |
1768 | 108 | 92 | 98 |
1769 | 99 | 92 | 92 |
1770 | 100 | 92 | 94 |
1771 | 107 | 96 | 94 |
1772 | 117 | 103 | 98 |
1773 | 119 | 102 | 99 |
1774 | 116 | 101 | 98 |
1775 | 113 | 96 | 98 |
1776 | 114 | 102 | 101 |
(a) Viz. Barley, beans, biscuiits, break, flour, oats, peas, rye, wheat, beef for salting, butter, cheese, pork, ale, beer, cider, hops, malt, pepper, raisins, sugar, tea, tallow candles, coal, broadcloth, hair, felt hats, kersey, leather, leather backs, Brussels linen, Irish linen, blue yarn stockings.
(b) Viz. all items after wheat in footnote (a).
(c) Viz. bricks, coal, lead, pantiles, plain tiles, hemp, leather backs, train oil, tallow, lime, glue and copper.
Reproduced, complete with footnotes, from Mitchell [1962 p469]
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